THE ANALYST COMMENTARY November 6, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

LIBERTY VENTURES NETWORK ADDED AS A SPONSOR

Liberty Ventures (libertyventuresnetwork.com) is a network for investors, executives, and entrepreneurs who are committed to advancing capitalism to work together in creating value, generating wealth, and advancing liberty.

What unifies the network of over 25,000 leaders is a belief in the power of capitalism as a force for good. 

We support the network in unlocking the potential of capitalism in several ways including:

  • Knowledge-sharing and syndicate deal flow for investors
  • Peer groups for executives to advance their careers and scale their businesses
  • Resources for entrepreneurs to build their businesses like pitch competitions and accelerators
  • Events to share opportunities and build relationships
  • Media to amplify what members are doing through a magazine, podcast, newsletter, social media, PR support, and more
  • Engaging leaders to activate, communicate, and educate others on the principles of capitalism via our nonprofit, Principled Business (principledbusiness.org)

You can get involved as a free member at libertyventuresnetwork.com. And you can learn more by participating in one of our upcoming events like the Liberty Ventures Investor Summit in Dallas, TX on January 13: https://luma.com/9zmjiu9c .

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THE ANALYST COMMENTARY November 5, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

SPOTLIGHT ON THE ECONOMY

U.S. Debt Hits Record Levels

U.S. debt hit $38 trillion recently, the first time in history. By contrast, U.S. debt was just $18.1 trillion ten years ago. The debt has been growing at an alarming rate – $500 billion was added in just October alone, which equates to $23 billion per day or $114,000 per American. It is estimated that the total national debt has grown by $69,713.82 per second for the past year. Total U.S. debt (federal, household, and corporate debt) is nearing $100 trillion. The total debt now equals 324% of GDP, with federal debt at $37.5 trillion, household debt at $20.5 trillion, and corporate debt at $42 trillion. Interest payments to service the national debt now consume $1.21 trillion annually—about 17% of the federal budget in fiscal year 2025

Economists focus on the debt-to-GDP ratio to measure fiscal sustainability. Currently about 125%, this figure is projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to climb to 156% by 2055. This trend warns that government spending outpaces economic growth drastically.

The growing debt burden threatens the economy through higher inflation, rising borrowing costs for mortgages and cars, lowered business investments, and increased goods prices.

The Trump administration says its policies are helping to slow government spending and will shrink the nation’s massive deficit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported a $468 billion cumulative deficit from April-September 2025, the lowest since 2019.

So, Who Are the Lenders of All of This Debt?

Who lends to the federal government?

The U.S. federal government borrows money by issuing Treasury securities to lenders, who provide funds in exchange for repayment with interest. The lenders are:

  • Foreign governments and investors: A significant portion of U.S. debt is held by foreign countries like Japan and China, as well as their financial institutions.
  • Domestic investors: This includes a wide range of U.S. entities and individuals, such as banks, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, and individuals who buy Treasury bonds, notes, and bills.
  • The Federal Reserve: The central bank holds a substantial amount of U.S. debt, having bought government securities to manage the money supply.
  • Intragovernmental holdings: This category represents debt that one part of the government owes to another, such as the Social Security trust fund lending to the Treasury.

Who lends to corporations and individuals?

  • Banks and financial institutions: These are the primary lenders for corporations and individuals seeking loans for mortgages, business expansion, or other financial needs.
  • Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs): Some government-sponsored entities also provide financing for individuals and businesses.
  • Other investors: Various other entities, including insurance companies and even individuals, can act as lenders through different types of investments and loan products.

Please see the charts on the public debt levels in the Charts section of the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Newsletter.

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THE ANALYST COMMENTARY November 4, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

NEW CROWDFUNDING INVESTMENT IDEAS ADDED

The Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Newsletter, as part of our goal to bring new and unique investment ideas to our subscribers, searches for crowdfunding and other early-stage company investment ideas. You can find these investment ideas in the Crowdfunding Research Report section of the newsletter.

We have added several new companies lately to our list of crowdfunding ideas. You can find them here.

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THE ANALYST COMMENTARY October 31, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

SPOTLIGHT ON HOTEL COMMUNICAITON NETWORK (HCN)

A new ‘global unicorn’ is on the rise.  

After 15 years of steady growth, HCN is poised to lead the travel industry with its innovative multi-sided marketplace. A global agreement secured with Hilton and the acquisition of its top competitor, position HCN as the industry frontrunner. Its unique business model provides hotels with a free, tablet-based AI concierge, generating profit through shared ad revenue while eliminating costs for hotels.

HCN’s AI concierge, accessible via in-room tablets, delivers personalized guest assistance without downloads or scans. This seamless experience extends beyond the hotel, transferring reservations, tickets, and the concierge itself to guests’ devices for on-the-go convenience. Targeting the 17-million-room hotel industry, HCN’s ad-supported model and strategic brand partnerships drive rapid adoption. Millions of daily guest interactions will create a powerful network effect, establishing HCN as the ultimate digital platform for travel.

For more information, please visit the company at Hotel Communication Network.

Please also see additional information on HCN on our Sponsored Research page.

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THE ANALYST COMMENTARY October 13, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

THE FIFTH FACTOR OF PRODUCTION (A Nobel Prize Related Idea)

The Four Factors of Production

In standard economic models, there are Four Factors of Production: (1) Land; (2) Labor, (3) Capital; and (4) Entrepreneurship. The Four Factors of Production are the essential resources used to produce goods and services in an economy:

  1. Land – All natural resources used to produce goods and services, such as minerals, water, forests, and land itself.
  2. Labor – The human effort (physical and mental) used in the creation of products and services.
  3. Capital – The man-made resources (like machinery, tools, buildings, and technology) used to produce other goods and services.
  4. Entrepreneurship – The creativity, vision, and risk-taking ability to combine the other three factors to produce goods, innovate, and drive economic growth.

A New Theory in Economics – The Fifth Factor of Production

I am proposing a new theory in economics which suggests that there is a Fifth Factor of Production which has emerged only recently. That fifth factor of production is Artificial Intelligence. I believe that Artificial Intelligence may qualify as a Fifth Factor of Production because it has some very unique characteristics that distinguishes it from the other Four Factors of Production.

  1. Artificial Intelligence is not Land, by definition;
  2. Artificial Intelligence is not Labor because, by definition, it is not human – but it has, and is, replacing a great deal of human labor;
  3. Artificial Intelligence would be considered by many economists to be Capital – but it is very different from other Capital as discussed below.
  4. Artificial Intelligence has elements of Entrepreneurship in its creativity and innovativeness – but it is not Entrepreneurship in and of itself.

How Is Artificial Intelligence Different from the Four Factors of Production?

Much has been written about Artificial Intelligence not being sentient. Being sentient means having the capacity to feel and perceive the world through your senses, experiencing sensations, emotions, and consciousness. It’s the ability to have subjective experiences, such as pain, fear, happiness, and pleasure, rather than just being a programmed response. Does this mean that Artificial Intelligence should not be considered Labor? But, in fact, it is increasingly replacing Labor in much of the world. And this trend is expected to continue.

Should Artificial Intelligence be considered Capital, as many economists would no doubt suggest? I believe Artificial Intelligence has gone beyond being considered mere Capital due to the rapid and far-reaching nature of its adoption.

In my thinking thus far, I believe that Artificial Intelligence has characteristics that could place it in both the Labor and Capital categories. It is a bridge between these categories. This would again suggest that it have a category all its own as a Fifth Factor of Production.

What Makes A Factor of Production a Factor of Production?

A Factor of Production is considered such because it is an essential input required to produce goods or services — without it, production cannot take place.

To qualify as a factor of production, something must meet these key criteria:

  1. It contributes directly to production – It plays a role in creating value or output.
  2. It is scarce and has an opportunity cost – Using it for one purpose means it can’t be used for another.
  3. It earns a return or reward – Each factor receives income for its use:
    • Land → Rent
    • Labor → Wages
    • Capital → Interest
    • Entrepreneurship → Profit
  4. It can be combined with other factors – Production usually involves multiple factors working together (e.g., land + labor + capital + entrepreneurship).

In short, a Factor of Production is any input that is necessary, limited, and productive, helping turn resources into goods and services that satisfy human wants. It can be argued that Artificial Intelligence meets these criteria.

This Proposal Is a Working Draft

This proposal is a working draft of a new theory that suggests that Artificial Intelligence is a Fifth Factor of Production. I will be undertaking new research to further study and refine this theory. Your suggestions and thoughts on this new theory are welcome. Please send them to me at pwendee@pmwassoc.com.

Note: This Idea for a Fifth Factor of Production was born in the classroom of an economics class that I teach. Please see the links below for photos of the whiteboards in the lectures where I first thought of this idea and for a subsequent lecture where I refined the idea a little further with the help of the class.

Note: We just learned this morning that the Nobel Economics Prize Committee has awarded the prize in economics to three economists whose work has explored the role of innovations and technology, particularly the role of artificial intelligence, in how economies work and grow. Having just received this announcement this morning, along with the rest of the world, I will be studying the nature of their work more closely in the coming weeks. You can click this link to see an article in the Wall Street Journal about the Nobel Economics Prize Committee’s announcement.

October 6 2025 Lecture

20251006_091934Download

October 8 2025 Lecture

20251008_091557

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COMMENTARY October 11, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

NEW CROWDFUNDING INVESTMENT IDEAS ADDED

The Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Newsletter, as part of our goal to bring new and unique investment ideas to our subscribers, searches for crowdfunding and other early-stage company investment ideas. You can find these investment ideas in the Crowdfunding Research Report section of the newsletter.

We have added several new companies lately to our list of crowdfunding ideas. You can find them here.

Posted in Economic & Business Chart Room, Economic Outlook, Entrepreneurship, Focus List, Investment Recommendations, Investments, Special Situations, Uncategorized, VDI/REEP, Visionary Ideas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on COMMENTARY October 11, 2025

COMMENTARY October 8, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

GOLD SURPASSES A RECORD $4,000 A TROY OUNCE

Gold surpassed $4,000 a troy ounce for the first time on Tuesday. It was trading in excess of $4,000 today, as shown in the chart below. This is an indication that investors are rushing for safe haven investments in gold and other alternative assets during this time of economic uncertainty.

But, it’s important to keep a realistic perspective on the price of gold. Over time, gold has not been one of the best performing asset classes in which to invest. In fact, according to Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run Indices Chart (shown below), it has been near the bottom in terms of performance when ranked against other asset classes.

It is tempting to want to jump into an asset class when it has had good near-term performance, like gold has been having this year. But it is best to keep your perspective about any asset class; avoid the “Following-the-Herd Mentality”; keep your long-term investing goals in mind; and don’t succumb to FOMO (the “Fear of Missing Out”).

Posted in Economic & Business Chart Room, Economic Outlook, Entrepreneurship, Focus List, Investment Recommendations, Investments, Special Situations, Uncategorized, VDI/REEP, Visionary Ideas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on COMMENTARY October 8, 2025

COMMENTARY September 25, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

TRETHERA RECEIVES $1.8M NIH CROHN’S GRANT

Trethera has announced that the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has awarded a $1.8M grant to advance preclinical development of TRE-515 as a potential treatment for Crohn’s disease.

  • TRE-515 is a once-daily oral therapy targeting deoxycytidine kinase (dCK), a novel metabolic vulnerability driving autoimmune disease.
  • In preclinical studies, TRE-515 outperformed Johnson & Johnson’s Stelara, blocking IBD symptoms in mice by selectively limiting activated CD4 T-cell proliferation.
  • NIH peer review comments described TRE-515 as the only dCK inhibitor in development, noting its favorable safety profile and innovative approach.

This award builds on prior NIH funding and Trethera’s recent presentation at the Crohn’s & Colitis Congress. With this continued support, we are accelerating TRE-515 in development to address the high unmet needs of Crohn’s patients.

Read full press release: $1.8M NIH Grant for TRE-515 Crohn’s Research | Trethera

👉 Trethera’s Seed Series 5A Round is Open Through Sept 30 — Connect with Investor Relations: Investor Relations Contact | Trethera

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COMMENTARY September 21, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

This Is The ONE Economist I Listen To When I Want To Understand What Is Really Happening In the Economy!

As a professional economist, I am continuously listening to and reading what other economists have to say about current economic conditions, both domestically and globally. And I usually pick up a few good insights from all of them. But when I want to really understand what is going on in the economy, this is the ONE economist I listen to most closely. Click here for this ONE economist’s recent assessment of economic conditions. Be sure to listen to the entire 51 minute presentation/discussion. You will come away with the most complete understanding that anyone has, in my opinion, of the current economy.

Posted in Economic & Business Chart Room, Economic Outlook, Entrepreneurship, Focus List, Investment Recommendations, Investments, Special Situations, Uncategorized, VDI/REEP, Visionary Ideas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on COMMENTARY September 21, 2025

COMMENTARY September 17, 2025

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional WisdomTM ~

OVERVALUED MARKETS AND THE PARABLE OF THE OIL PROSPECTORS

Benjamin Graham – mentor, friend, and teacher to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger – passed this parable on to Buffett and Munger. The anecdote illustrates how crowd psychology and herd mentality can override logic in investing and lead to overvalued markets and other investment fallacies.

The parable of the oil prospectors

The story, which Buffett has retold many times, goes like this:

  1. At the pearly gates: An oil prospector arrives at heaven and is told by St. Peter that the section for oil men is already full.
  2. The message: Desperate, the prospector asks to deliver a four-word message to the men inside. St. Peter agrees. The prospector yells, “Oil discovered in hell!”
  3. The exodus: Immediately, all the oil men rush out of heaven to go to hell.
  4. The twist: St. Peter offers the prospector a place in heaven, but he declines, saying, “I think I’ll just go along with the rest of them. After all, there may be some truth to the rumor”.

Interpretation and meaning

The parable is a cautionary tale about succumbing to market speculation and herd behavior, even when it goes against rational judgment.

  • Rationality vs. rumor: The oil prospectors in heaven knew they were in a perfect place, yet the rumor of “easy money” in hell was so tempting that they abandoned a certainty for a wild goose chase.
  • Speculation vs. value: Graham and Buffett, proponents of value investing, use the story to warn against chasing speculative bubbles and trends. Even when an investment seems irrational, the fear of missing out (FOMO) can lead even disciplined people to follow the crowd.
  • Focus on fundamentals: The story reminds investors to ignore market noise and rumors, and instead focus on a company’s intrinsic value, or the solid, foundational facts of the business.

For our current estimate of the valuation of the markets, see our Markets section.

Posted in Economic & Business Chart Room, Economic Outlook, Entrepreneurship, Focus List, Investment Recommendations, Investments, Special Situations, Uncategorized, VDI/REEP, Visionary Ideas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on COMMENTARY September 17, 2025