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ECONOMIC FORECASTERS PREDICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER GROWTH IN 2025 AND 2026 (Release Date: November 17, 2025)
The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks marginally better now than it did three months ago, according to 33 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026. These annual projections are 0.2 percentage point higher than the estimates in the survey of three months ago. The growth projections for 2027 and 2028 of 2.1 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, remain unchanged compared with those in the survey of three months ago.
The projections for the unemployment rate are nearly unchanged from those of the previous survey. Like the previous survey, the unemployment rate is projected to be an annual average of 4.2 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026 before falling to 4.4 percent in 2027, and 4.3 percent in 2028.
On the employment front, the forecasters predict job gains in the current quarter at a rate of 30,800 per month. The employment projections for both the current quarter and the following three quarters show downward revisions from those in the survey of three months ago. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 125,100 in 2025 and 55,200 in 2026, down from the previous estimates of 132,800 in 2025 and 86,200 in 2026. (These annual-average projections are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.
Please click here to see the complete forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.