~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

ECONOMIC FORECASTS: Wall Street Journal Quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters

Economists expect stronger growth and job creation, lower risk of recession and cooler inflation than they did three months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters that was released today.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

Trethera Corporation

We are adding Trethera Corporation to the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Newsletter research. You will find information on this investment in the Research Reports section of this newsletter. You can find the specific links to Trethera Corporation here. We are making this investment research available to you at no charge.

Trethera announced yesterday that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Fast Track designation for its novel drug, TRE-515, in the treatment of prostate cancer. TRE-515 is currently in phase 1 clinical trials for solid tumors.

The Fast Track designation applies to TRE-515 in combination with radioligand therapy for the treatment of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-positive metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), a condition impacting thousands of patients. PSMA, an important disease biomarker, is detected in over 80% of prostate cancer cases, enabling earlier identification and intervention.

Trethera is hosting a webinar on Tuesday, July 15^th at 2 pm. Please see our Research Reports section for more information on the company, the FDA approval, and to register for the webinar.

About Trethera

Trethera is a clinical stage, privately held, biopharmaceutical company dedicated to pioneering the development of novel treatments for autoimmune diseases and cancers. Founded by prominent UCLA scientists, Trethera is led by experienced management and board members. Trethera’s innovative approach to targeting nucleotide metabolism led to the development of TRE-515, an orally administered capsule twice designated by the FDA as an Orphan Drug. TRE-515 is a first-in-class clinical stage drug that inhibits deoxycytidine kinase (dCK), the rate-limiting enzyme in the nucleoside salvage pathway, one of two biosynthetic pathways that generate DNA precursors. It is believed that some forms of cancer may be preferentially dependent on the salvage pathway to support tumor growth, and certain autoimmune diseases might also respond to TRE-515 treatment. Trethera is developing TRE-515 for use as a monotherapy or in combination to precisely target a metabolic vulnerability of cancer or autoimmune diseases that will transform outcomes for patients.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

Beyond Boundaries:

2025 Trends That Will Redefine Everything

It’s been a little while since I last posted to the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Newsletter. I took a short sabbatical to finish a book I was writing on Entrepreneurship. That book has now been submitted for publication on Amazon Kindle and should be available for purchase in the next few days. I will let you know when it is available.

I thought you might like to see the Future Today Strategy Group’s 2025 Tech Trend’s Report. This is the 18th edition of this highly regarded report. It is a free download, which you can download here.

Amy Webb, the CEO and founder of the Future Today Strategy Group, also did a presentation at the South by Southwest (SXSW) conference which you can view here.

As Founder and CEO of the Future Today Strategy Group (FTSG), Amy pioneered a unique quantitative modeling approach and data-driven foresight methodology that identifies signals of change and emerging patterns very early. Using that information, Amy and her colleagues identify white spaces, opportunities and threats early enough for action. They develop predictive scenarios, along with executable strategy, for their global client base.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

ECONOMIC FORECASTS: First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Forecasters See Brighter Outlook for Growth and Employment in 2025

(Release date: February 14, 2025). The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 40 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.5 percent this quarter, up from the prediction of 1.9 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4 percent in 2025, up 0.2 percentage point from the estimate in the previous survey.

A small downward revision to the path for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase from 4.1 percent this quarter to 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the previous survey, the unemployment rate was forecast to rise from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent over the same period. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 4.2 percent in 2025, marking a slight downward revision from the previous estimate of 4.3 percent.

On the employment front, the forecasters predict job gains in the current quarter at a rate of 152,100 per month. The employment projections for both the current quarter and the following quarter show upward revisions from those of the previous survey. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 145,000 in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 134,100. (These annual-average projections are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

The forecasters expect current-quarter headline CPI inflation will average 3.0 percent at an annual rate, up from their prediction of 2.3 percent in the previous survey. Headline PCE inflation over the current quarter will also be higher at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, up
from the previous estimate of 2.2 percent. The predictions for current-quarter core CPI and core PCE inflation are also higher compared with their predictions in the last survey.
Projections for headline and core CPI and PCE inflation at other forecast horizons have also been revised upward compared with those in the survey of three months ago.

Over the next 10 years, 2025 to 2034, the forecasters predict headline CPI inflation will be an annual-average rate of 2.30 percent. The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.11 percent. These 10-year projections are 0.07 percentage point and 0.01 percentage point higher than those of the previous survey, which covered the 10-year horizon from 2024 to 2033.

The forecasters see the risk of a downturn in real GDP this quarter at 9.7 percent, down from the previous estimate of 15.0 percent. Moreover, they have also lowered their probability estimates for negative growth for the following two quarters compared with their previous estimates.

The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual-average rate of 2.10 percent over the next 10 years, slightly higher than their projection in the first-quarter survey of 2024. Ten-year annual-average productivity growth is now expected to be 1.60 percent, up from 1.50 percent previously.

Go to the Survey of Professional Forecasters to see the complete report.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

ECONOMIC FORECASTS: Fourth Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters and National Association for Business Economics

Now That The New President Has Been Sworn In, What Do Economic Forecasters Expect for The Economy?

Donald Trump was sworn in today as the 47th President of the United States, serving his second non-consecutive term. So, what do economists expect the economy to do under his administration? Unfortunately, two of the latest economic surveys that we follow are not very current, as they were both taken in November of last year. But even so, the forecasters were looking ahead with their interpretation of what the Trump Administration was thinking at the time of those surveys. We will update you as these and other new economic surveys are released.

NABE Outlook Survey Panelists Expect Continued, but Moderating, Economic Growth and Slowing Inflation

NOTE: The November 2024 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 38 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for 2024 and 2025, was conducted October 29 – November 8, 2024.

SUMMARY: “NABE panelists’ forecasts for economic growth in 2024 and 2025 are higher than their previous projections,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, global chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “The current forecast calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 2.7% in 2024, and 2.0% in 2025—up from 2.6% and 1.8% in the September Outlook Survey. In addition, the largest share of respondents—44%—now sees the risks surrounding the outlook as balanced, whereas a majority of respondents in the previous survey thought downside risks were more likely than balanced or upside risks.”

“The median forecast for inflation calls for further cooling, with the consumer price index projected to slow to a 2.3% annual rate by the end of 2025, and the personal consumption expenditure price index coming in at a 2.1% annual rate by then,” addedNABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “The latter rate is the Federal Open Market Committee‘s preferred measure of inflation. Panelists look for the Committee to gradually but consistently lower its target for the federal funds interest rate, cutting the target by a quarter-percentage point in December, followed by a full percentage point in 2025.”

Go to the National Association for Business Economics to see the complete report.

Survey of Professional Forecasters

Please see our Commentary of December 9, 2024 for the latest release (November 15, 2024) of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The next release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters will be on February 14, 2025.