INTRINSIC VALUE WEALTH REPORT NEWSLETTER

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

ECONOMIC FORECASTERS PREDICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER GROWTH IN 2025 AND 2026 (Release Date: November 17, 2025)

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks marginally better now than it did three months ago, according to 33 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026. These annual projections are 0.2 percentage point higher than the estimates in the survey of three months ago. The growth projections for 2027 and 2028 of 2.1 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, remain unchanged compared with those in the survey of three months ago.

The projections for the unemployment rate are nearly unchanged from those of the previous survey. Like the previous survey, the unemployment rate is projected to be an annual average of 4.2 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026 before falling to 4.4 percent in 2027, and 4.3 percent in 2028.

On the employment front, the forecasters predict job gains in the current quarter at a rate of 30,800 per month. The employment projections for both the current quarter and the following three quarters show downward revisions from those in the survey of three months ago. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 125,100 in 2025 and 55,200 in 2026, down from the previous estimates of 132,800 in 2025 and 86,200 in 2026. (These annual-average projections are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.

Please click here to see the complete forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

SPOTLIGHT ON THE ECONOMY

U.S. Debt Hits Record Levels

U.S. debt hit $38 trillion recently, the first time in history. By contrast, U.S. debt was just $18.1 trillion ten years ago. The debt has been growing at an alarming rate – $500 billion was added in just October alone, which equates to $23 billion per day or $114,000 per American. It is estimated that the total national debt has grown by $69,713.82 per second for the past year. Total U.S. debt (federal, household, and corporate debt) is nearing $100 trillion. The total debt now equals 324% of GDP, with federal debt at $37.5 trillion, household debt at $20.5 trillion, and corporate debt at $42 trillion. Interest payments to service the national debt now consume $1.21 trillion annually—about 17% of the federal budget in fiscal year 2025

Economists focus on the debt-to-GDP ratio to measure fiscal sustainability. Currently about 125%, this figure is projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to climb to 156% by 2055. This trend warns that government spending outpaces economic growth drastically.

The growing debt burden threatens the economy through higher inflation, rising borrowing costs for mortgages and cars, lowered business investments, and increased goods prices.

The Trump administration says its policies are helping to slow government spending and will shrink the nation’s massive deficit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported a $468 billion cumulative deficit from April-September 2025, the lowest since 2019.

So, Who Are the Lenders of All of This Debt?

Who lends to the federal government?

The U.S. federal government borrows money by issuing Treasury securities to lenders, who provide funds in exchange for repayment with interest. The lenders are:

• Foreign governments and investors: A significant portion of U.S. debt is held by foreign countries like Japan and China, as well as their financial institutions.
• Domestic investors: This includes a wide range of U.S. entities and individuals, such as banks, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, and individuals who buy Treasury bonds, notes, and bills.
• The Federal Reserve: The central bank holds a substantial amount of U.S. debt, having bought government securities to manage the money supply.
• Intragovernmental holdings: This category represents debt that one part of the government owes to another, such as the Social Security trust fund lending to the Treasury.

Who lends to corporations and individuals?

• Banks and financial institutions: These are the primary lenders for corporations and individuals seeking loans for mortgages, business expansion, or other financial needs.
• Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs): Some government-sponsored entities also provide financing for individuals and businesses.
• Other investors: Various other entities, including insurance companies and even individuals, can act as lenders through different types of investments and loan products.

Please see the charts on the public debt levels in the Charts section of the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Newsletter.