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ECONOMIC FORECAST: OCTOBER 2026 NABE OUTLOOK SURVEY
The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Outlook Survey Panel Foresees Another Fed Rate Hike as Economic Growth Firms While Inflation Lingers
“The October 2026 NABE Outlook Survey panel sees an economy that is growing faster and running hotter than it anticipated in June,” said NABE Vice President Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist and ESG officer, ADP.
“The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 rose to 2.1%, up from 2.0% in the June 2026 survey, supported by business investment that is now expected to grow 6.7%. Core personal consumption expenditures inflation is expected to reach 3.3% by the fourth quarter of 2026, and the 2027 core inflation forecast was revised higher for a second consecutive survey to 2.4%. Following the Federal Open Market Committee’s September rate hike, panelists now expect one more 25-basis-point increase before year-end, to a midpoint of 4.125%, and no rate cuts through 2027. In June, the panel expected the Fed to hold steady this year and begin cutting in the second quarter of 2027.”
“The labor market continues to outperform expectations, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 71,000, and lowered their unemployment rate forecast to 4.2%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.
“Confidence that an economic downturn is not imminent also continued to build. Nearly half of panelists do not expect the next downturn to begin before 2029, and the share putting the odds of a recession in the next 12 months below 20% doubled to 26% since the previous survey. The mix of risks is shifting, however. Fewer panelists cite broadening geopolitical conflicts as the top downside risk, while the share pointing to a monetary policy mistake more than tripled to 18%. Nearly nine in ten panelists now see the AI buildout as inflationary over the next year, while 42% expect it to weigh on payroll employment by the end of 2027.”
You can access the complete survey at the National Association for Business Economic’s Consensus Macroeconomic Forecast.