It’s Not Different This Time – End-of-Year 2020 Thoughts
As I am writing this year-end commentary, I am reflecting on the year 2020 that is passing and the new year of 2021 on the horizon. I am seeing, like everyone else, the flood of predictions, forecasts, and places to invest in 2021 from any number of pundits who really have no idea what is going to happen; but feel the need to make these ridiculous 2021 predictions. I feel something tugging at me to do the same, lest I am left out of the prediction game. But I am not going to succumb to these animal instincts, or “animal spirits,” as Keynes (1936) called them. Instead, I am going to tell you what you need to hear – not what you want to hear. I am not here to entertain you. I am here to give you sound investment advice. If I have a few less people reading my newsletter, so be it! The ones who do read it and take to heart what I say will be much better prepared for 2021 and far beyond. Here is what you need to hear (these are not predictions – they are just realities).
First, and perhaps most importantly, we are in a very overvalued market. According to Advisor Perspectives (2021): “Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — current valuation levels would be a serious concern.”
The P/E ratio, while not the only good valuation metric, is often used for market valuation. It also has a lot of research behind it. When P/E ratios get high, as they are now, they revert to the mean. This can happen in one of two ways: (1) earnings improve; and/or (2) the price drops. As our discussion below on the economy suggests, earnings improvement may be difficult to achieve given the current economic climate. That leaves the price having to drop for the current market PE ratios to revert. Now as for predictions, I can’t tell you when that will happen. It may not even happen in 2021. But the P/E ratio will correct at some point in time. The historical record on that is well established.
We are currently quite likely in a financial bubble in many markets. Unfortunately, most people don’t realize when they are in a financial bubble and they keep investing as if it will be different this time. It won’t be different this time! It never is – history is very clear on this point.
The economy has been struggling to recover, but it keeps hitting headwinds as the pandemic surges on. I have written extensively on the economy in these commentaries this past year, so I won’t go into details here (you can review the past commentaries and upcoming commentaries in this newsletter to see our analysis). But as a quick summary, the U.S. and global economies have been severely impacted since the pandemic began in March and it will take quite some time for them to recover. The U.S. government is heavily in debt as a result of extraordinary stimulus efforts and the effects of the pandemic. Businesses and consumers are also heavily in debt. The debt situation is not new to the pandemic, but has been exasperated significantly since March. A Democratic Party dominated government going into 2021 poses, among other things, the risk of a pickup in inflation and further rising debt levels. Many economists, including some at the Fed, suggest it could take a decade or longer for the U.S. economy to fully recover. Any recovery will be hampered by high debt and inflation.
The pandemic continues to surge in countries around the world, especially in the U.S. The world now has two vaccines with more vaccines on the way. There are some delivery and distribution problems – science has been better at developing vaccines than governments have been at figuring out how to get the vaccines distributed to their populations (no surprise there!). Nonetheless, global economies won’t begin to recover in any significant way until the spread of the coronavirus is stopped. And most people and governments around the globe have shown that they are not capable of stopping the virus using social distancing and other common-sense measures. It will take the vaccines, and the widespread acceptance of the vaccines, to stop the virus. People and governments have shown that they can’t be relied upon to exercise the self-restraint necessary to curb the pandemic. Vaccines will have to save people from themselves.
There is a new administration in American politics. The Biden-Harris Administration appears to be shaping up as having a left-of-center to progressive-left focus. How that plays out in the financial markets is anyone’s guess. This is one area where I am going to particularly stay away from making any predictions. History has not been conclusive in its assessment of how different political regimes affect the markets.
So, how should we invest? The answer is to stay the course! The market is overvalued; the economy is struggling; the pandemic is still surging; and there is much uncertainty with a new U.S. political administration. What does stay the course mean? As I have been advising since the pandemic started, stay the course means to continue with your regular investing program if you have one – but don’t jump into overvalued markets in a big way. If you don’t have a regular investing program – start one. But again, go into the markets easy – don’t jump into overvalued markets in a big way.
When you are investing, be careful in your stock selection. You can find good values in good companies in any market; but there are of course more values to be found in undervalued markets. Unfortunately, we can’t pick our markets. We can only be prudent when investing in the markets that are given to us. A good rule to follow when investing in individual companies is to use what I call the Warren Buffett’s Three Rights – the Right company, with the Right people, at the Right price (see our August 18, 2020 Commentary for a discussion of this investment philosophy).
Remember also that what matters most in the long run for your investment program’s success is asset allocation. Asset allocation is what asset classes you invest in. Your investment results will be influenced more by what asset classes you are invested in (i.e., stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, etc.) and less by what individual companies you invested in, as long as you are well diversified.
Finally, I am reflecting on what two of the greatest investors of all time would do, and perhaps advise, in this market environment. The two investors I am talking about are Warrant Buffett and Philip Fisher. Both of these legendary investors are very long-term oriented investors and tend to hold good companies for very long periods of time. I watched an interview with Buffett (1996) recently with one of my MBA classes I teach in which Buffett explained why he keeps companies in which he invests so long: it is because it is so hard to find a good company, that he wants to hold onto a good company once he finds one.
Philip Fisher had a similar philosophy. Ken Fisher is Philip’s son and a legendary investor in his own right. I was reviewing Philip Fisher’s book, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (2003), the other night and noted what Ken said about his father’s philosophy on the markets. In Ken’s words: “Would he [his father] have worried about the myriad of other negatives in contemporary media, like corporate integrity, double-dip recession possibilities, high market price-earnings ratios, the risk of Brazil defaulting, or whatever? No, not much. He would have used this time while others focused on the wrong things to refocus on the basic fundamentals of the firms he owned and to see if he should still own them.”
References
Buffett, W. (1996). Warren Buffett: MBA Talk at University of North Carolina. University of North Carolina, University of North Carolina.
Fisher, P. A. (2003). Common stocks and uncommon profits. Hoboken, New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons.
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest, and money. London, Macmillan.
Mislinski, J. (2021). “December 2020: Market valuation, inflation, and treasury yields.” https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/01/05/december-2020-market-valuation-inflation-and-treasury-yields.
Economic and Investment Highlights
Last Week
Small businesses are finding it difficult to get loans from banks.
Shell said it is writing down the value of its assets by as much as $4.5 billion and warned it would have poor earnings in Q4.
The Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech was approved by the EU’s drug agency.
Airlines are planning to call back workers that had been laid off due to the coronavirus after Congress approved assistance to cover payrolls through the end of March.
Existing home sales fell 2.5% in November, the first decline in 6 months.
Household spending fell in November for the first time in seven months. Layoffs remain at high levels.
States and cities have instituted some of the most stringent curbs on business and social gatherings since spring to try to curb the spread of the virus.
The Dow and the Nasdaq rose for the week while the S&P 500 declined. The Dow was up 0.1%; the S&P 500 was down 0.17%; and the Nasdaq was up 0.4%. The 10-year treasury yield ended the week at 0.933%. Gold closed at $1,879.90 for the week. Oil closed at $48.23 for the week.
The Week Ahead
This link takes you to Econoday’s Economic Calendar and Economic Events and Analysis which shows the upcoming economic reporting events scheduled in the week and months ahead.
Summary
Note: The models below may not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. They may not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the models.
Note: The comments that follow are derived from the economic indicators referenced in the Resources section of this newsletter and other sources in this report.
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ALS) had been trending up for several weeks from having dipped in 2019. Recently with the advent of the economic collapse, the index crashed. It has now been generally trending down again, but fluctuating within a narrow band. This is a slightly positive indicator for the economy on a short-term basis.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.5 percent. This reading agrees with the ALS model assessment of an improving short-term economic environment.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.96 percent for 2020:Q4.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) showed an increase in economic activity in October. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was was +0.27 in November, down from +1.01 in October.
All told, these short-term economic indicators are a mixed analysis for the economy, at least on a short-term basis.
Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months is now at 43.6% in a recent AAII Sentiment Survey. The historical average is 38.0% for the survey. 34.4% of the investors in the survey described their short-term outlook as neutral and 22.0% were bearish. Please see the AAII Sentiment Survey for the complete results.
The latest Gross Output (GO) reading (July 6, 2020) showed that Gross Output slowed significantly in the first quarter of 2020.
Advisor Perspectives publishes a monthly market valuation update.
Advisor Perspectives has market valuation and other useful and interesting investment information at this website.
Fourth Quarter 2020 Survey of Professional Forecasters
[Release Date: November 16, 2020] The outlook for real GDP growth in the next few quarters looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 4.0 percent this quarter, lower than the prediction of 5.8 percent from the previous survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to decrease 3.5 percent this year but to recover and grow at an annual rate of between 2.1 percent to 4.0 percent over each of the following three years.
A downward revision to the projection for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. The forecasters predict unemployment will decrease from a projected 7.0 percent this quarter to 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. The prediction for the current-quarter unemployment rate is 2.5 percentage points lower than that of the last survey. On an annual-average basis, the panelists predict the unemployment rate will decline from a projected 8.2 percent in 2020 to 4.6 percent in 2023.
On the employment front, the forecasters expect job gains in the current quarter at a rate of 689,800 per month. The employment projections for the current and the following three quarters show upward revisions from those of the previous survey. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a monthly rate of 718,000 in 2020 and job gains at a monthly rate of 321,600 in 2021. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
NABE Surveys
NABE Outlook Survey – December 2020
SUMMARY: “The NABE [National Association for Business Economics] Outlook panel anticipates more moderate growth in economic activity going forward after the sharp rebound during the third quarter,” said NABE President Manuel Balmaseda, CBE, chief economist, CEMEX. “The median forecast calls for a 4.1% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2020 for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or real GDP. In addition to the 33.1% GDP growth in the third quarter of the year, this would reverse much of the 32% annualized decline from the second quarter. However, the panel has become slightly less bullish about 2021. The median real GDP growth estimate for 2021 is 3.4%, slightly less than the 3.6% forecasted in the October survey.” “NABE panelists have become more optimistic, on balance, with nearly one-third revising their outlook higher based on recent news of effective vaccines,” added Survey Chair Holly Wade, executive director, NFIB Research Center. “Seventy-three percent of panelists believe that the economy will have returned to pre-pandemic GDP levels by the second half of 2021, 18% expect it to reach that level in the first half of 2022, and 10% believe it will occur in the second half of 2022 or later. The 73% is a dramatic improvement from the October survey in which 38% of panelists believed that a full recovery would occur before 2022. “Just over one-third of respondents anticipate more downside risk to economic growth in 2021,” continued Wade. “Panelists point to a second wave of COVID-19 cases as their main concern.”
The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released its October Outlook Survey which is summarized as follows: “The NABE Outlook panel sees a strong rebound in economic activity after the collapse experienced during the second quarter,” said NABE Vice President Manuel Balmaseda, CBE, chief economist, CEMEX. “The median forecast calls for a 25% annualized growth rate in the third quarter of 2020 for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or real GDP. That would reverse much of the 31% annualized decline from the second quarter. However, the panel has become less bullish about the fourth quarter of 2020, as well as 2021. The median real GDP growth estimate for 2021 is 3.6%, compared to a 4.8% forecast in the June survey.”
“NABE panelists have become more optimistic, on balance, but remain concerned about a potential second wave of COVID-19,” added Outlook Survey Chair Eugenio Aleman, economist, Wells Fargo Bank. “Thirty-eight percent of panelists believe that the economy will have returned to pre-pandemic GDP levels by the second half of 2021, 32% expect it to reach that level in the first half of 2022, and 30% believe it will occur in the second half of 2022 or later.
“About half of the panelists put the odds of a double-dip recession at 20% or less,” continued Aleman. “In contrast, one out of eight panelists places those odds at 50% or higher.”
Other highlights from the survey:
The median forecast calls for the unemployment rate to average 8.4% in 2020, 2.5 percentage points lower than the median forecast in the previous survey. Panelists expect the unemployment rate to decline each quarter, averaging 6.8% in 2021, compared with the 8% previously forecasted. The unemployment rate averaged 3.7% in 2019.
Panelists look for business investment to drop sharply this year. Real nonresidential fixed investment is forecasted to decline 6%. Panelists anticipate real nonresidential fixed investment to rise only gradually in 2021, increasing 2.4%.
Survey respondents expect inflation—as measured by the GDP price index—to be significantly lower in 2020 and 2021 relative to 2019. Inflation is forecasted to be 1.0% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021. The index increased 1.8% in 2019.
Panelists expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 1.2% in 2020, significantly lower than the actual 1.8% growth in consumer prices in 2019. The 2020 forecast median has increased since the June survey, when panelists saw CPI rising by 0.7%. The panel anticipates consumer price growth will pick up moving forward, with a 1.9% annual average gain in 2021.
Panelists expect corporate profits to contract by 11% in 2020. The median forecast calls for profits to increase by 8.5% in 2021.
Four out of ten panelists indicate that 5% of jobs will be permanently lost due to firms closing. More than half of the panel suggest between 10% and 20% of job losses will be permanent.
Thirty-eight percent of panelists believe that the economy will have returned to pre-pandemic GDP levels by the second half of 2021; only 2% suggest this will occur before the end of 2020, 12% believe GDP will recover in the first half of 2021, and 24% anticipate such a return in the second half of 2021. Thirty-two percent of respondents expect GDP to reach pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022, and 22% believe it will occur in the second half of 2022.
For a more in-depth review and analysis of the economy, please see our mini-book on economic analysis and forecasting entitled: Simple and Effective Economic Forecasting.
NABE October Business Conditions Survey
“The October NABE Business Conditions Survey shows that firms are continuing to gain ground since the sharp economic downturn experienced in the first half of the year,” said NABE President Manuel Balmaseda, CBE, chief economist, CEMEX. “This momentum is expected to continue through the rest of 2020. In addition, more respondents than in the July survey anticipate stronger growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product over the next year.” “More respondents in this survey report continued improvements, especially in sales and profit margins, at their firms during the past three months than in the July survey,” added NABE Business Conditions Survey Chair Holly Wade, executive director, NFIB Research Center. “Capital spending is also picking up steam, with more firms investing in their businesses over the past three months, and more planning to do the same in the next three months. “The employment picture is less rosy, with many firms still holding back on wage and staff increases,” continued Wade. “While slightly more respondents report an increase in employment at their firms over the last three months than in the previous survey, more also report a decrease in employment. Most firms are also forgoing raises to control costs with 70% of respondents’ firms reporting unchanged wages and salaries over the last two quarters, the highest reading since January 2014.”
Higlights
• The panel’s consensus outlook for the U.S. economy, measured by year-over-year growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP), continued to improve in October compared to that in the two previous surveys. Eighty-nine percent of panelists expect real GDP to increase from the third quarter (Q3) of 2020 to Q3 2021. Only 9% of respondents expect the real GDP change to be zero or negative, compared to 31% of respondents who held this view in the July survey when asked about the outlook for the 12 months ending Q2 2021.
• For the first time since April 2019, a majority of respondents’ firms reports increased sales at their firms, with 52% indicating rising sales during Q3. The Net Rising Index (NRI) for sales—the percentage of panelists reporting rising sales minus the percentage reporting falling sales—surged upward, increasing 47 points to 33, up from -14 in July. The forward-looking NRI for anticipated sales over the next three months also rose, adding to the sharp increase reported in the July survey. The NRI for anticipated sales increased 13 points, from 18 in July to 31, with positive readings in three of the four industry sectors.
• Profit-margin increases were more widespread in Q3 2020, but remained less prevalent than decreases among respondents’ firms, with the NRI for profit margins increasing 21 points to -4. The share of respondents reporting rising profit margins increased from 15% in July to 21% in October, while the percentage reporting falling margins declined 15 percentage points—from 40% in July to 25% in October.
• The NRI for prices charged returned to neutral in October—registering +1—following the sharp decline during the first half of 2020, that brought the NRI in July to its lowest level since 1987. NRIs by sector, however, vary significantly. The NRI for goods-producing firms is 21, after registering -40 in July. But the index for finance, insurance, real estate (FIRE) sector firms remains negative with an NRI of -19. Between these extremes are the NRI for services, with a reading of 3, and the NRI of 8 for the transportation, utilities, information, communications (TUIC) sector. The share of respondents expecting price increases in the next three months rebounded from levels in the previous two surveys to 26% in October, resulting in an NRI of 20. Six percent anticipate falling prices in the next three months.
• The NRI for materials costs also rebounded from two quarters of negative readings to a reading of 10. All sectors registered positive NRIs, led by goods-producers at 15, bouncing back from -56 in July. The NRI for expected costs rose modestly, from 1 to 8, having been as low as -21 in April.
• Hiring at respondents’ firms remains depressed. The third-quarter NRI for employment levels over the last three months is -17, compared to -19 in the July survey. Even as the NRI improved, the share of respondents indicating there was decline in employment at their firms rose to 27% from 24% in the July survey. At the same time, 9% report employment increases at their firms, compared to 5% in July. The outlook for employment deteriorated in Q3, as the NRI for hiring expectations declined to just 1, down from 6 in the July survey. Respondents from the goods-producing and TUIC sectors expect their firms will add jobs in the next three months. In the July survey, three of the four sectors had positive NRIs for expected employment change in Q3 2020.
• The NRI for wages and salaries rebounded 13 points to 4 in the October survey. The upward movement in the index reflects an increase to 17% from 11% in July in the share of respondents citing rising wages, and a decrease to 13% from 19% in the share reporting falling wages. The forward-looking NRI for wages and salaries moved from 0 in July to 15 in October.
• Almost two-thirds of respondents report no shortages of inputs in Q3 2020, similar to results from the July survey. The share of respondents reporting shortages is virtually unchanged in the current survey across all inputs, except for a decline in the percentage indicating intermediate input shortages.
• The NRI for capital spending improved, from -19 in July to -8 in October. Fewer respondents report continuing declines in spending, while more indicate their firms’ capital spending increased during Q3 2020. However, service-sector panelists report not much improvement from the prior two readings. The forward-looking NRI for capital spending rose considerably, from -40 in April to 6 in October, as fewer respondents expect declines in spending over the next 3 months.
• In response to COVID-19, businesses continue to adjust employee headcount and wages. Imposing a hiring freeze is the most common response, cited by 69% of respondents.
• Respondents’ near-term outlook improved slightly in October compared to that in the July survey. Thirty-six percent of respondents report a “Better” near-term in October, compared to 34% in July. Only 8% indicate their near-term outlook is “Worse” in October, compared to 12% in July.
• Twenty-three percent of respondents report that sales at their companies are at “more than 100% of pre-crisis level,” an increase from the 15% in the July survey.
• Thirty-one percent of respondents expect sales to return to normal “sometime in 2021,” while 24% do not expect sales to return to normal until sometime in 2022. Only 10% expect sales to return to normal by the end of 2020.
• Only 3% of respondents report that their firms applied, or are planning to apply, for Main Street Lending programs.
• Thirty-five percent of respondents indicate their firms have implemented new work-at-home policies, allowing “all employees” to work from home during the pandemic. Another 33% allow “most employees” to work from home, while 16% only allow “some employees” to work from home.
• Thirty-one percent of respondents report that their firms will wait for “progress regarding COVID-19” before changing their work-from-home policies. Twenty-two percent indicate their companies will wait until the second half of 2021, while 16% of firms plan to suspend work-from-home policies in the first half of 2021.
Stock Market Valuations
Our estimates of the market valuations for two stock market indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), can be found in the file below:
Conclusion
During this time of global flux due to the coronavirus, I am leaving the Conclusion discussion below the same as was posted on March 23, 2020. The March 23, 2020 discussion still adequately reflects my thinking on the current state of affairs.
Important Note: While I don’t believe it is time to jump back into the stock market in a big way because of the market’s overvaluation, I have been advising the last few of weeks in this Commentary and in my weekly podcast, Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Radio, that investors can continue building their investment portfolios by selecting individual securities that offer growth and value opportunities.
Reprinted from March 23, 2020
Up until the past week, the economy had been in a stable but somewhat vulnerable state. Nonetheless, it had remained fairly strong. In fact, robust consumer spending and strong labor market conditions had given us confidence that the economy, which had been in its tenth year of expansion, could continue to grow. But we were cautious on this outlook. There were several reasons for our caution. U.S. business growth had been mixed. And global economic growth had been mixed as well. The new coronavirus was becoming a global economic threat, although it was still too early to tell how much of an effect it would ultimately have. Debt is at high levels for consumers, businesses, and government (at all levels of government). Finally, this is an election year that will likely have significant consequences either positively or negatively depending on the outcome of the elections. And of course, it is still too early to tell what the outcome of the elections will be.
In just a few days, the coronavirus’s effect on the economy and the markets went from a ripple to a tsunami. Businesses are shuttering, events are being cancelled or postponed, grocery store shelves are empty, and people are being asked or ordered to stay home. The markets are now deep in bear market territory. The effects on the economy, even given the short time that the economy has been retreating, may be with us for a long time. There is now a much greater risk of a recession, and there has even been some talk of a depression. The government, the Fed, Republicans, and Democrats, and pretty much the entire country, is trying to get the virus under control and is coming up with plans to mitigate the long-term economic effects caused by the virus. But the virus has impacted the economy – in a significant way – in just a short time. How long lasting the effects will be no one can tell right now. The economy has been largely shut down and remains so today. It takes time to restart the economy after a situation such as what is occurring at the present time.
Given these events and the rapidly deteriorating situation, as I said last week, I would caution not to panic. The economy and the markets will get better. The situation is bad – there is no doubt about that – but it will turn around. The real question is when will it turn around? No one knows that at the present time. But it will turn around.
For now, review your investment portfolios. It is highly likely that all or most of your stocks are down. You should not consider selling the bulk of your stocks – only consider selling companies that are not sound companies. But do recognize that as the economy deteriorates, even good companies will be affected.
For stock market value hunters, we believe it is still too early to jump back in. We will be closely monitoring the markets using the many tools and models that we have developed over the years to assess the economy and the markets. We will use our best judgement and thoughts to let you know when we believe things are turning around. The turnaround hasn’t happened yet.
We believe it is important to maintain a long-term view toward investing. But for now, just sit tight. Eventually, this means that you should continue building your investment portfolio using the Cassandra Stock Selection Model to select individual securities that offer growth and value opportunities.
Chart for Review and Thought
Simple and Effective Economic Forecasting Model
Note: The table and chart below have not been updated. However, we believe that a recession is quite likely. In the chart below, the bottom green line shows what a recession could look like.
Notes (GDP Growth Chart):
- See the July 8, 2019 Commentary for an introduction to this model.
- Actual numbers 2007 through 2019; forecasted numbers thereafter.
- Normal GDP growth is typically in the 2% to 3% range.
- A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Thought for the Week
“Wendee’s Law of the Big Picture: Get the big picture first, then fill in the details” ~ Dr. Paul M. Wendee
Announcements
The Intrinsic Value Wealth Report has started a new YouTube channel called Intrinsic Value Wealth Report TV. You can view the YouTube channel at Intrinsic Value Wealth Report TV.
The Intrinsic Value Wealth Report has started a new podcast called Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Radio. You can listen to the podcast at Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Radio.
Dr. Wendee spoke at the Investment Club of America’s annual economic summit, called Econosummit, on Sunday March 1, 2020 in Las Vegas.
Dr. Wendee attended the The National Due Diligence Alliance (TNDDA) investment banking conference, which was held March 6-8, 2020 at the Four Seasons Resort in Dallas, Texas. This is a conference held several times throughout the year for investment bankers and registered investment advisers to learn about new opportunities in the Alternative Investment asset classes.
We have been researching the use of crowdsourcing for investment ideas. We will be sending a survey out in the next few weeks to get your input on the economy and the markets; and to get any investment ideas that you would like to share. We will compile this input and distribute the results to you and our other subscribers. We have been testing our crowdsourcing models with students and have been having good success and results.
Dr. Wendee has been researching and writing a new theory of economics known as, The Value Creation Theory of the Economy (also known as, Intrinsinomics). The full paper on Intrinsinomics will be published in the near future.
Finance 3350: Personal Finance-Portfolio & Risk Management– Dr. Wendee taught teaching Finance 3350 – Portfolio & Risk Management at California State University, Los Angeles (CSULA) for the Summer term starting May 2020. Dr. Wendee teaches courses in Management and Finance at CSULA.
Business 548: Strategy and Decision Making – Dr. Wendee taught Business 548 – Strategy and Decision Making at California Baptist University (CBU) starting at the end of June 2020. Dr. Wendee teaches courses in Finance, Business, Strategy & Decision Making, and Economics at CBU.
Business 303: Business Finance – Dr. Wendee taught Business 303 – Business Finance at California Baptist University (CBU) starting at the end of August 2020. Dr. Wendee teaches courses in Finance, Business, Strategy & Decision Making, and Economics at CBU.
Business 539: Financial Management – Dr. Wendee is teaching Business 539 – Financial Management at California Baptist University (CBU) which started at the end of October. Dr. Wendee teaches courses in Finance, Business, Strategy & Decision Making, and Economics at CBU.
Dr. Wendee presented a paper on his new theory of economics known as, The Value Creation Theory of the Economy (also known as, Intrinsinomics), at the International Leadership Association’s annual global conference which was held in Ottawa, Canada last Fall.
Dr. Wendee presented an updated paper on his new theory of economics known as, The Value Creation Theory of the Economy (also known as, Intrinsinomics), at the International Leadership Association’s annual global conference which was to have been held in San Francisco, California in November, but which was held virtually instead due to the Coronavirus.
Dr. Wendee delivered a talk entitled: Using Alternative Assets to Increase Portfolio Returns and Decrease Risk at the BrightTalk Q4 2020 Outlook Summit on October 28, 2020. You can access additional information on the summit and Dr. Wendee’s presentation here.
Dr. Wendee delivered a talk at the BrightTalk conference on December 9, 2020 entitled: Emerging Themes and Great Places to Invest for 2021. You can access additional information on the summit and Dr. Wendee’s presentation here.
Dr. Wendee is working on a financial planning modeling program which will be available in the near future. The modeling program is designed to assist anyone in creating a financial plan and is customizable for each person’s unique financial planning goals. A working draft of the model is currently in beta test with students. Click this link, schematic, to go to the clickable document under the subheading Financial Planning Process (Draft) in the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report to see a draft of the schematic for the new financial planning process.
Dr. Wendee has been developing an econometric model specifically designed to monitor and forecast the global economy as this current economic crisis unfolds. This new econometric model is based on other econometric models that he has designed and have used for many years. You can find some of these earlier models in Book # 6 – Simple and Effective Economic Forecasting in the sister website to this website which is called the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report. The new econometric model has been constructed with some additional tools and methods that he has learned and some that he has developed over the last several years. He will be talking more about this new econometric model in this Commentary over the next few months. His comments and forecasts on the economy and the markets going forward will be based to a significant extent on this new model.
We have begun raising capital for our fund-of-funds investment, Northwest Quadrant Opportunity Fund, LLC. The fund engineers and constructs an investment vehicle consisting of Alternative Asset investments. The fund’s objective is to build a diversified portfolio of strong, solid, steady- performing assets, with highly qualified asset managers who have proven track records that meet our underwriting requirements. To learn more about the Northwest Quadrant Opportunity Fund, LLC and to obtain an offering memorandum, please click Northwest Quadrant Opportunity Fund, LLC.
Intrinsic Value Wealth Creation pyramid
We always conclude our commentary with a discussion of the Intrinsic Value Wealth Creation Pyramid. The Intrinsic Value Wealth Creation Pyramid is designed to show some of the major categories for building wealth. It is the result of many years of study of the wealth building process; experience working with clients who have built considerable wealth; and my own personal experience building wealth. Newsletter subscribers should consult the Intrinsic Value Wealth Creation Pyramid as one of many useful investment tools while considering their investment plans.
The chart in this section is an expanded version of the Intrinsic Value Wealth Creation Pyramid Chart referenced in the Forbes.com article entitled, Nine of the Best Ways to Build Wealth.
RESOURCES
See our Resources section for links to economic and other resources used in the preparation of this Commentary.