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ECONOMIC FORECASTS: Fourth Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters and National Association for Business Economics
Now That The New President Has Been Sworn In, What Do Economic Forecasters Expect for The Economy?
Donald Trump was sworn in today as the 47th President of the United States, serving his second non-consecutive term. So, what do economists expect the economy to do under his administration? Unfortunately, two of the latest economic surveys that we follow are not very current, as they were both taken in November of last year. But even so, the forecasters were looking ahead with their interpretation of what the Trump Administration was thinking at the time of those surveys. We will update you as these and other new economic surveys are released.
NABE Outlook Survey Panelists Expect Continued, but Moderating, Economic Growth and Slowing Inflation
NOTE: The November 2024 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 38 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for 2024 and 2025, was conducted October 29 – November 8, 2024.
SUMMARY: “NABE panelists’ forecasts for economic growth in 2024 and 2025 are higher than their previous projections,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, global chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “The current forecast calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 2.7% in 2024, and 2.0% in 2025—up from 2.6% and 1.8% in the September Outlook Survey. In addition, the largest share of respondents—44%—now sees the risks surrounding the outlook as balanced, whereas a majority of respondents in the previous survey thought downside risks were more likely than balanced or upside risks.”
“The median forecast for inflation calls for further cooling, with the consumer price index projected to slow to a 2.3% annual rate by the end of 2025, and the personal consumption expenditure price index coming in at a 2.1% annual rate by then,” addedNABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “The latter rate is the Federal Open Market Committee‘s preferred measure of inflation. Panelists look for the Committee to gradually but consistently lower its target for the federal funds interest rate, cutting the target by a quarter-percentage point in December, followed by a full percentage point in 2025.”
Go to the National Association for Business Economics to see the complete report.
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Please see our Commentary of December 9, 2024 for the latest release (November 15, 2024) of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The next release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters will be on February 14, 2025.