Category Archives: Investment Recommendations

October NABE Outlook Survey Summary: “The NABE Outlook panel sees a strong rebound in economic activity after the collapse experienced during the second quarter,” said NABE Vice President Manuel Balmaseda, CBE, chief economist, CEMEX. “The median forecast calls for a 25% … Continue reading →

The Missing Piece in the Macroeconomic Puzzle For the first time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the “top line” gross output (GO) at the same time as the “bottom line” GDP. The Wall Street Journal has just published … Continue reading →

Do P/E Ratios Imply a 44% Drop in the Market? Will price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios revert to the mean? They have been high for a very long time, indicating an overvalued stock market. I have been writing about this problem in … Continue reading →

U.S. Government is Crowding Out Private Investment Will the U.S. government be the innovator of the future? Probably not. But the way it is borrowing money and crowding out private investment, one would think that the government believes it can … Continue reading →

If You Want to Understand the Financial Markets, Read the Bible I’ve been studying the Bible to gain a better appreciation for its historical and literary significance. Besides being the word of God, it is a fascinating and insightful account … Continue reading →

What Does the Q Ratio Say About the Market’s Valuation? In the last few issues of this Commentary, we have discussed various measures for valuing the stock market. As I have noted, some of the measures we have been using … Continue reading →

What Does the Buffett Indicator Say About the Market’s Valuation? An interesting indicator for valuing the stock market is the “Buffett Indicator”, named for Berkshire Hathaway Chairman, Warren Buffett. According to Buffett, the market is overvalued when the market cap … Continue reading →

Is There A Perfect Storm Brewing? I have been warning for quite some time that the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, is very overvalued. The index has been hitting new highs in the past few weeks … Continue reading →

The Three Rights That Lead To Exceptional Investment Returns Part of Warren Buffett’s genius is in his ability to see things in basic, fundamental, and commonsense ways. He is a master at taking complicated ideas and putting them into very … Continue reading →

Should You Plan On Working From Home Well Into The Future? What the Market May Be Telling You! There is a theory going around that the high valuations of tech stocks might be suggesting the effects of this pandemic will … Continue reading →