~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

Beyond Boundaries:

2025 Trends That Will Redefine Everything

It’s been a little while since I last posted to the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Newsletter. I took a short sabbatical to finish a book I was writing on Entrepreneurship. That book has now been submitted for publication on Amazon Kindle and should be available for purchase in the next few days. I will let you know when it is available.

I thought you might like to see the Future Today Strategy Group’s 2025 Tech Trend’s Report. This is the 18th edition of this highly regarded report. It is a free download, which you can download here.

Amy Webb, the CEO and founder of the Future Today Strategy Group, also did a presentation at the South by Southwest (SXSW) conference which you can view here.

As Founder and CEO of the Future Today Strategy Group (FTSG), Amy pioneered a unique quantitative modeling approach and data-driven foresight methodology that identifies signals of change and emerging patterns very early. Using that information, Amy and her colleagues identify white spaces, opportunities and threats early enough for action. They develop predictive scenarios, along with executable strategy, for their global client base.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

ECONOMIC FORECASTS: First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Forecasters See Brighter Outlook for Growth and Employment in 2025

(Release date: February 14, 2025). The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 40 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.5 percent this quarter, up from the prediction of 1.9 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4 percent in 2025, up 0.2 percentage point from the estimate in the previous survey.

A small downward revision to the path for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase from 4.1 percent this quarter to 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the previous survey, the unemployment rate was forecast to rise from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent over the same period. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 4.2 percent in 2025, marking a slight downward revision from the previous estimate of 4.3 percent.

On the employment front, the forecasters predict job gains in the current quarter at a rate of 152,100 per month. The employment projections for both the current quarter and the following quarter show upward revisions from those of the previous survey. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 145,000 in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 134,100. (These annual-average projections are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

The forecasters expect current-quarter headline CPI inflation will average 3.0 percent at an annual rate, up from their prediction of 2.3 percent in the previous survey. Headline PCE inflation over the current quarter will also be higher at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, up
from the previous estimate of 2.2 percent. The predictions for current-quarter core CPI and core PCE inflation are also higher compared with their predictions in the last survey.
Projections for headline and core CPI and PCE inflation at other forecast horizons have also been revised upward compared with those in the survey of three months ago.

Over the next 10 years, 2025 to 2034, the forecasters predict headline CPI inflation will be an annual-average rate of 2.30 percent. The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.11 percent. These 10-year projections are 0.07 percentage point and 0.01 percentage point higher than those of the previous survey, which covered the 10-year horizon from 2024 to 2033.

The forecasters see the risk of a downturn in real GDP this quarter at 9.7 percent, down from the previous estimate of 15.0 percent. Moreover, they have also lowered their probability estimates for negative growth for the following two quarters compared with their previous estimates.

The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual-average rate of 2.10 percent over the next 10 years, slightly higher than their projection in the first-quarter survey of 2024. Ten-year annual-average productivity growth is now expected to be 1.60 percent, up from 1.50 percent previously.

Go to the Survey of Professional Forecasters to see the complete report.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

ECONOMIC FORECASTS: Fourth Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters and National Association for Business Economics

Now That The New President Has Been Sworn In, What Do Economic Forecasters Expect for The Economy?

Donald Trump was sworn in today as the 47th President of the United States, serving his second non-consecutive term. So, what do economists expect the economy to do under his administration? Unfortunately, two of the latest economic surveys that we follow are not very current, as they were both taken in November of last year. But even so, the forecasters were looking ahead with their interpretation of what the Trump Administration was thinking at the time of those surveys. We will update you as these and other new economic surveys are released.

NABE Outlook Survey Panelists Expect Continued, but Moderating, Economic Growth and Slowing Inflation

NOTE: The November 2024 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 38 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for 2024 and 2025, was conducted October 29 – November 8, 2024.

SUMMARY: “NABE panelists’ forecasts for economic growth in 2024 and 2025 are higher than their previous projections,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, global chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “The current forecast calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 2.7% in 2024, and 2.0% in 2025—up from 2.6% and 1.8% in the September Outlook Survey. In addition, the largest share of respondents—44%—now sees the risks surrounding the outlook as balanced, whereas a majority of respondents in the previous survey thought downside risks were more likely than balanced or upside risks.”

“The median forecast for inflation calls for further cooling, with the consumer price index projected to slow to a 2.3% annual rate by the end of 2025, and the personal consumption expenditure price index coming in at a 2.1% annual rate by then,” addedNABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “The latter rate is the Federal Open Market Committee‘s preferred measure of inflation. Panelists look for the Committee to gradually but consistently lower its target for the federal funds interest rate, cutting the target by a quarter-percentage point in December, followed by a full percentage point in 2025.”

Go to the National Association for Business Economics to see the complete report.

Survey of Professional Forecasters

Please see our Commentary of December 9, 2024 for the latest release (November 15, 2024) of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The next release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters will be on February 14, 2025.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

Are You Having Any Success Raising Capital? We Are!

Our affiliated investment banking firm, Entoro Capital, has recently launched the crowdfunding service of its Offerboard investment platform. So now, Offerboard can list Reg CF offerings (Equity Crowdfunding), in addition to Reg D 506c offerings and Reg A+ offerings.

Please see the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report Newsletter’s Commentary for October 19, 2024 to learn about Equity Crowdfunding and other offering types.

If you are interested in raising capital for your enterprise, please contact Dr. Paul Wendee, pwendee@pmwassoc.com, 949-919-2853 (office) or 949-246-1694 (mobile).

Entoro Disclosure: The information contained herein is not intended as a recommendation and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The information contained is for informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for an investment decision. Entoro offers a variety of brokerage and advisory services and additional information can be found in our client relationship summary (form CRS). Investing involves risk, and there is the possibility of losing some or all your money when investing in securities and related instruments. Investment in Private Securities is highly speculative and illiquid, and investment decisions should only be made if you are able to sustain the loss of the entire investment and if you have no need for liquidity, as you should not assume you will have the ability to resell private securities. Private placement securities are generally only available for sale to accredited investors, as defined in the Securities Act of 1933. Investors should refer to the offering documents for detailed risk factors and considerations associated with private placement investments. Private placements securities have not been registered under the Securities Act, or applicable state securities laws, and are sold in reliance on exemptions from registration under the Securities Act and are therefore not required to comply with specific disclosure requirements that apply to securities registered under the Securities Act, amongst other differences. The Investment products described herein may not be offered for sale in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful or prohibited by the specific offering documentation. Entoro Capital, LLC, is the parent company of OfferBoard, LLC and Entoro Securities, LLC. Entoro Securities, LLC, is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and is a member of FINRA and SIPC. Securities offered through Entoro Securities LLC, Member FINRA SIPC. Not FDIC insured, not bank guaranteed, and may lose value.

Complete disclosures can be found at: https://www.entoro.com/disclosures

Entoro Securities Client Relationship Summary (form CRS): https://docsend.com/view/33d5u4kpatp6x92g

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

Jim Woods Presentation to University Investment Class

Jim Woods gave this excellent presentation to a university class on investments that I teach. It is an excellent presentation on some of Jim’s investment principles, investment methodology, and investment philosophy.

Jim Woods is a 30-plus-year veteran of the markets with varied experience as a broker, hedge fund trader, financial writer, author and newsletter editor.

He’s the editor and investment director of Successful Investing, Bullseye Stock Trader, High Velocity Options, Crypto & Commodities Trader, and The Deep Woods e-Letter (Jim also co-directs the Fast Money Alert trading service, alongside Dr. Mark Skousen.)

The independent firm TipRanks has rated Jim the #1 financial blogger in the world (out of more than 14,000 competing analysts), and has been ranked inside the Top 12 globally for more than a decade.

His books include co-authoring, “Billion Dollar Green: Profit from the Eco Revolution,” and “The Wealth Shield: How to Invest and Protect Your Money from Another Stock Market Crash, Financial Crisis or Global Economic Collapse.”

His Top Pick was the #1 Performing Stock out of 120 in the MoneyShow’s 2022 Top Pro’s’ Top Picks Report. His pick led the way out of the picks of the nation’s leading financial experts.

His articles have appeared on many leading financial websites, including StockInvestor.com, InvestorPlace.com, Main Street Investor, MarketWatch, Street Authority, Human Events and many others.

Jim formerly worked with Investor’s Business Daily founder William J. O’Neil, helping to author training courses in the CANSLIM stock-picking methodology.

He is known in professional and personal circles as “The Renaissance Man,” because his expertise includes such varied fields as composing and performing music; Western horsemanship, combat marksmanship, martial arts, auto racing and bodybuilding.

Jim holds a BA in philosophy from the University of California, Los Angeles, and is a former U.S. Army paratrooper. A self-described “radical for capitalism,” he celebrates the virtue of making money from his Southern California horse ranch.

To view this video, go to our Intrinsic Value Wealth Report TV page on YouTube, or click on this link to go directly to the video: Jim Woods Presentation to University Investment Class. You can also see a directory of our YouTube videos by clicking here.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

John Rock Foster’s Presentation on Economic History and Austrian Economics

John Rock Foster gave this excellent presentation to a university class in Macroeconomics that I teach. It is an excellent presentation on economic history and Austrian Economics. John Rock Foster, President of Middle School MBA, has the mind of an entrepreneur and the soul of a teacher. John is an author, executive, angel investor, and lifelong student of markets. According to John, “…his career failed its way through process engineering, operations, business management, M&A, and corporate strategy; finally failing big enough to exit. He now teaches kids the lowdown on business and entrepreneurship, hoping they will fail bigger and sooner.”

To view this video, go to our Intrinsic Value Wealth Report TV page on YouTube, or click on this link to go directly to the video: John Rock Foster’s Presentation on Economic History and Austrian Economics. You can also see a directory of our YouTube videos by clicking here.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

Introduction to Business Power Tools – Video 3

In this three part video series, Dr. Paul Wendee interviews Burke Franklin, founder and creator of Business Power Tools. This is the third and last video in this series.

Business Power Tools is a suite of templates, software, and resources designed to help entrepreneurs, small business owners, and consultants with various aspects of business management and planning. It offers a range of customizable templates and guides for business plans, financial projections, employee management, investor presentations, and marketing strategies, making it a comprehensive toolkit for those looking to streamline business development processes.

To view this video, go to our Intrinsic Value Wealth Report TV page on YouTube, or click on this link to go directly to the video: Introduction to Business Power Tools – Video 3. You can also see a directory of our YouTube videos by clicking here.

~ Un-Common Sense In An Irrational World: We Challenge the Conventional Wisdom^TM ~

ECONOMIC FORECASTS: Fourth Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Forecasters Predict Higher Near-Term Growth, Lower Headline Inflation, and Lower Risk of a Negative Quarter in 2025

[Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters; Release date November 15, 2024] The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 33 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter and 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2025, up from the predictions of 1.7 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025.

The forecasters see little change in the outlook for the unemployment rate from the survey of three months ago. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate will increase from 4.0 percent in 2024 to 4.3 percent in 2025, and then decrease to 4.1 percent in 2027. These projections are within 0.1 percentage point of the projections from the last survey.

On the employment front, the forecasters also predict little change in job gains for 2024 and 2025. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment imply job gains at a monthly rate of 208,400 in 2024 and 134,100 in 2025. (These annual-average projections are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.) 

The forecasters expect current-quarter headline CPI inflation will average 2.2 percent at an annual rate, down from their prediction of 2.5 percent in the previous survey. Headline PCE inflation over the current quarter will also be slightly lower at an annual rate of 2.0 percent. The prediction for current-quarter core CPI inflation of 2.9 percent, on the other hand, is higher than that of the previous estimate of 2.6 percent.

Projections for headline and core CPI and PCE inflation in 2025 and 2026 are little changed compared with those of the previous survey.

Over the next 10 years, 2024 to 2033, the forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.23 percent at an annual rate, slightly lower than the estimate of 2.30 percent from the previous survey. The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.10 percent, unchanged from the previous prediction.

The forecasters see the likelihood of a downturn in real GDP this quarter at 8.9 percent, down from the previous estimate of 21.0 percent. They have also lowered their probability estimates for negative growth for the following three quarters, compared with their previous estimates.

Go to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecaster to see the complete report.